时间:2018年03月22日 21:56:58

Donald Trump is so fond of the word “winnerthat he even applies it to pieces of chicken. Having lunch with the FT a couple of years ago, the mogul-turned-politician pointed his interviewer towards a particularly succulent portion and declared: “That piece looks like a winner.”唐纳德礠朗Donald Trump)特别喜欢说“赢”,他甚至把它用在了鸡肉上。两年前在与英国《金融时报》记者共进午餐时,这位当过地产大亨、后转行从政的名人指着一块特别肥嫩的鸡肉对采访他的记者说:“这一块看上去赢了。”In Mr Trump’s world, the biggest winner of all is, of course, The Donald himself. His campaign for the Republican nomination has been based around the claim that: “I’m very good at winning. I believe in winning.It is a remarkably successful pitch. Most opinion polls still show Mr Trump leading the race to be the Republican nominee.当然,在特朗普的世界里,最有希望赢的那个人是他自己。他争夺共和党总统候选人提名的选战建立在这种说法的基础上:“我非常擅长赢。我相信赢。”这是一段非常成功的宣传说辞。多数民调仍显示,特朗普在共和党提名争夺战中处于领先地位。All this chest-thumping is revealing. For Mr Trump’s claim to have magical winning properties appeals precisely to those Americans who fear that they and their country are turning into losers. In a typical rhetorical flourish, Mr Trump once argued that America is “going down fast. We can’t do anything right. We’re a laughing stock all over the world.(The fear that people are laughing at you is, of course, a classic loser’s trait.)这种拍着胸膛保的做法很能说明问题,因为特朗普宣称拥有神奇的赢的能力,这种宣传恰恰迎合了那些担心他们自己和他们的国家正变成输家的美国人的心理。特朗普曾以他典型的夸张语气提出,美国正“快速衰萀?我们什么都做不对。我们正成为全世界的笑柄”。(担心正在被人嘲笑当然正是一种典型的输家特征。)All the leading Republican contenders argue that America is going to the dogs, even if they sometimes differ on the details. Ben Carson, the neurosurgeon, who is challenging Mr Trump for the leading position in the polls, has even claimed that “political correctnessmeans that America is now “very much like Nazi Germany所有领先的共和党参选人都辩称,美国正在走下坡路,尽管他们有时在具体内容上存在分歧。在民调中对特朗普的领先地位构成挑战的神经外科医生本愠森(Ben Carson)甚至宣称,“政治正确性”意味着美国现在“非常像纳粹德国”。People who vote Republican still tend to be richer than Democrats, so all this despair in Republican ranks is a little surprising. But the US is changing in ways that are clearly making much of the party’s base fearful and insecure.投票给共和党的选民仍往往比民主党选民更富有,因此共和党各阶层的这种绝望情绪有些让人意外。但美国正在发生的一些变化,显然让共和党很多选民感到担心和不安。There are four big changes that seem to underpin Republican insecurity: the first is ethnic, the second is social, the third is economic and the fourth is a shift in America’s global position.个重大变化似乎是共和党不安全感的来源:第一是种族变化,第二是社会变化,第三是经济变化,第四是美国全球地位的变化。Just 39 per cent of white Americans voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and yet the president was easily re-elected, after gaining the support of 90 per cent of minority voters. Whites still make up 72 per cent of the electorate, but America is changing fast. According to the US Census Bureau, by 2020 “more than half the nation’s children will be part of a minority race or ethnic group with Hispanics the largest single minority group. By 2043 the US will be “majority-minority with whites less than 50 per cent of the population. Mr Trump’s rhetoric appeals to white voters who are scared by this change. He has promised to deport all 11m illegal immigrants in the US and to build a giant wall along the Mexican border.2012年,只有39%的美国白人投票持巴拉克攠巴Barack Obama),而在赢得90%少数族裔选民持后,奥巴马轻松连任。美国白人仍然占到美国选民总数2%,但美国正迅速发生变化。根据美国人口普查局(US Census Bureau)的数据,020年,“超过一半的美国儿童将属于少数种族或族裔”,拉美裔将成为最大单一少数族裔群体。到2043年,美国将变成“少数族裔占人口大多数”的国家,白人所占比例将低于一半。特朗普的言论迎合了那些害怕这种变化的白人选民的心理。他承诺将把美国1100万非法移民全部驱逐出境,并在墨西哥边界砌起一道巨型隔离墙。A fear of social change in the US has also long animated religious conservatives, who are an important part of the Republican base and are particularly strong supporters of Mr Carson. The religious right thinks that the legalisation of abortion set America on the path to perdition and this cultural pessimism has been further stirred by the legalisation of gay marriage.长期以来,对美国社会变化的担忧也激起了宗教保守派的热情,他们是共和党选民基础的重要组成部分,是卡森尤为热情的持者。宗教右翼人士认为,堕胎合法化将让美国走上灭亡之路,同性恋婚姻合法化则进一步激发了这种文化悲观主义论调。With real wages stagnant for many Americans, including the middle-class, the Republicans have also begun to adopt the rhetoric of economic insecurity. Mr Trump bashes hedge-fund managers. Even Ted Cruz, who is fighting hard to be the most rightwing candidate, has complained that Mr Obama’s economic policies have only benefited the richest 1 per cent of Americans.由于很多美国人(包括中产阶级)的实际薪资停滞不前,共和党人还开始宣扬经济方面的不安全感。特朗普抨击对冲基金经理。甚至连努力成为最右翼候选人的特德克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)也不满地指出,奥巴马的经济政策只让美国最富有%人群受益。Mixed in with all this domestic insecurity is a pervasive sense that America itself is becoming less powerful. The idea that some erosion in its global strength is inevitable, given the rise of China, gets short shrift in the Republican debate. Instead all setbacks, real and imagined, are attributed to Mr Obama’s “weakness掺杂在这种国内不安全感之中的是一种普遍存在的感觉:美国的实力正在下滑。认为鉴于中国的崛起,美国的全球实力难免受到一定削弱的观点,在共和党的辩论中受到忽略。所有的挫折(不管是真实的还是想象中的)都被归咎于奥巴马的“软弱”。All the Republican candidates seem to want to show a more aggressive face to the world. Carly Fiorina, who is sometimes touted as a voice of moderation, has said of President Vladimir Putin of Russia: “I wouldn’t talk to him at all... I would do immediately, I would begin rebuilding the Sixth Fleet...I would also conduct military exercises in the Baltic states.This kind of “strongtalk is so strident that it risks looking weak.共和党的所有候选人都希望向世界展示出更咄咄逼人的形象。有时被捧为温和派代言人的卡莉菲奥里纳(Carly Fiorina)在谈到俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔渠Vladimir Putin)时表示:“我根本不会跟他谈……我会马上做什么?我会开始重建第六舰Sixth Fleet)……我还会在波罗的海国家开展军事演习。”这类“强硬”言论如此过激,以至于这番话有显得软弱的风险。The key question for the Republicans is whether it is possible to put together a coalition of “losersthat could actually win. The polls provide some encouragement. A Reuters survey a few days ago found that 59 per cent of Americans think their country is on the “wrong track compared to just 24 per cent who think it is heading in the right direction.共和党的一个关键问题是,能否将“输家”组织成一个能够真正取胜的联盟。民调结果令人鼓舞。路Reuters)几天前的一项调查显示,59%的美国人认为美国正走在“错误的轨道”上,只4%的美国人认为美国正在朝正确的方向前进。Yet if the Republicans base their strategy on a relentlessly gloomy message about the state of the US, they will be ignoring lessons from their own past. The great hero of the modern Republican party remains the late Ronald Reagan, who managed to combine highly conservative views with sunny optimism. President Reagan also had a self-deprecating good humour that is a million miles away from the dark warnings and shameless bragging of Mr Trump.然而,如果共和党人将其竞选策略建立在对美国现状传达极其悲观的信号上,他们将忽视他们自己过去的经验。现代共和党的伟大英雄仍是已故的罗纳德里Ronald Reagan),他曾成功地将极度保守的观点与阳光向上的乐观主义结合在一起。里根还具备自嘲的幽默感,特朗普忧郁的警告与无耻的自夸与里根相差十万八千里。The modern Republican party needs a Reagan-like candidate who can say, “our best days lie aheadand sound like he means it. In a crowded but unconvincing field, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has done the best job of condemning the Obama years, without sounding angry or unhinged. He is also Hispanic, which may go some way to undoing his party’s massive disadvantage among minority voters. As the Republicans search for a candidate who “looks like a winner Senator Rubio increasingly looks like their best bet.现代共和党需要里根那样的候选人,可以告诉世人“我们最好的日子在前头”,而且听上去不是说着玩的。在这个候选人众多但说力欠缺的战场上,佛罗里达州参议员马尔科脠比Marco Rubio)在谴责奥巴马执政期方面功勋卓著,而且他听上去不愤怒、也不神经。他也是拉美裔,这或许能够在某种程度上消除共和党在少数族裔选民中的巨大劣势。在共和党寻找“看上去能赢”的候选人之际,参议员鲁比奥看上去越来越像是他们的最佳押注对象。来 /201511/408048

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif says his meeting Wednesday with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry shows that Iran and a group of world powers are y to ;speed up; their negotiations on Irans nuclear program.伊朗外长扎里夫说,他星期三与美国国务卿克里的会晤表明,伊朗和伊核问题六大国已经准备好“加快”伊核谈判。Just before the meeting in Geneva began, Zarif called the talks with Kerry ;important,; and that ;all issues are easy if we resolve them.;在日内瓦会晤开始前,扎里夫称与克里的会谈很“重要 他说,“只要我们对问题加以解决,一切都很容易。”Kerry did not comment before the meeting. He said earlier this week his discussions with Zarif would be a chance for the diplomats to assess where the two sides stand.克里在会晤前没有发表讲话。克里本周早些时候说,他与扎里夫的讨论使得外交人员有评估双方立场的机会。Lower-level negotiations are due to resume on Thursday.低级别谈判定于星期四恢复。It has been two months since the two sides decided to extend the negotiations after failing to agree by their self-imposed November deadline.双方由于没能在去1月最后期限前达成协议而决定延长谈判至今,已经两个月了。Now, about six weeks remain before their goal of having a framework in place for a deal that would address concerns about possible military applications of the Iranian nuclear program in exchange for easing sanctions that have hurt the countrys economy.现在距达成一个框架协议的目标还有大约6个星期的时间。最后协议的目的是缓解对伊朗核项目可能用于军事目的的担心,以换取解除伤及伊朗经济的制裁措斀?The deadline for a final agreement is July 1.达成最后协议的最后期限是7日。来 /201501/355506

Chinas largely rubber stamp parliament on Sunday passed the countrys first law against domestic violence, which covers unmarried people who cohabit but does not protect gay couples, a senior lawmaker said.周日,中国全国人大常委会通过了全国首部反家庭暴力法。一位高级立法者说,该法保护了未婚同居人群的权益,但同性伴侣并未被包括在内。China previously did not have a special law covering violence in the family, an issue often ignored to avoid bringing shame upon the family in traditional Chinese culture.之前,中国从未有特定涉及家庭暴力的法律条例。在中国传统文化之中,人们常常忽略家庭暴力,以此来避免让家庭蒙羞。The new law prohibits any form of domestic violence, including psychological abuse, and helps streamline the process for obtaining restraining orders.新的法律禁止了包括精神虐待在内的任何形式的家庭暴力,并且还简化了申请禁制令的流程。According to the Communist Party-run All-China Womens Federation, about one quarter of women have suffered violence in their marriage, though only some 40,000 to 50,000 complaints are registered each year.根据妇联披露,约有四分之一的妇女在婚姻中受到家庭暴力的伤害。然而每年只万到5万人会登记相关投诉。Of the cases reported last year, almost 90 percent involved abuse by husbands of their wives.在去年报告的案例中,约有90%是丈夫虐待妻子的情况。The new law also covers cohabitation, meaning those who are not related but live together are also included.新法律同样也照顾到同居人群,这表明那些并未结婚但一起居住的人也同样受到法律保护。Asked at a news conference whether this covered gay couples, Guo Linmao, a member of the Legislative Affairs Commission of parliaments standing committee, said the law had been formulated in response to specific problems discovered.当在新闻发布会上被问及新法律是否适用于同性伴侣时,人大常委会法工委社会法室负责人郭林茂称,该法律是根据现实中出现的家庭暴力的实际情况制定的;As for homosexuals in our country, we have not yet discovered this form of violence, so to give you a certain answer, it can be said that people who cohabit does not include homosexuals.;“关于同性恋,在我们国家,我们还没有发现这种暴力的形式,所以给你个确定的回答,应该说共同生活人员不包括同性恋。”While homosexuality is not illegal in China, and large cities have thriving gay scenes, there are no legal protections for same-sex couples and the country is not likely to legalize same-sex marriage soon.尽管同性恋在中国仍被视为非法,但是在大城市中已经有相当广泛的同性恋圈子。在中国并没有法律保障同性伴侣的权益,中国也不太可能很快将同性婚姻合法化。来 /201512/418577

As he appeals to the British public to vote him in as prime minister, the leader of the opposition proposes collecting new data to provide a better picture of how the country is doing. “Wellbeing can’t be measured by money or traded in markets,he says. He adds, “We measure all kinds of things but the only thing we don’t measure is the thing that matters most.”当他呼吁英国公众投票选他当首相时,反对党领导人提议收集新数据,以便更好地了解英国的国情。“福祉无法用金钱衡量,也不能在市场上交易,”他说。他补充说,“我们衡量各种各样的事物,但唯一没有衡量的是那最重要的东西。”All of the preceding paragraph is true, except for one detail: the first ation is from David Cameron, then leader of the opposition, in 2006. The second is from Ed Miliband, the current leader of the opposition, a couple of weeks ago. Both men are united, it seems, by a feeling that the most familiar economic measuring stick, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), just isn’t up to the job. Cameron wanted to gather data on wellbeing or happiness; Miliband wants a “cost of livingindex. Few reasonable people can object to gathering timely and authoritative economic and social statistics, yet Miliband and Cameron have managed the impressive feat of being cynical and naive at the same time.上述段落的所有内容都是真实的,只有一个细节例外:第一个引语是2006年戴#8226;卡梅David Cameron)所说,当时他是反对党领袖。第二个是现任反对党领导人埃#8226;米利班德(Ed Miliband)几个星期前所讲。两人看起来都有一种相同的感觉:人们最熟悉的经济衡量标尺国民生产总GDP)已经不合用。卡梅伦要收集关于福祉或幸福的数据;米利班德想要一个“生活成本”指数。没有多少理性的人反对收集及时、权威的经济和社会统计数据,但米利班德和卡梅伦两人做到了不容易的事,那就是表现得既犬儒又幼稚。The cynical motives in both cases are plain enough as were, for example, Nicolas Sarkozy’s when, as French president, he commissioned some alternative economic measures that just happened to be more flattering to France. As the leader of a party with a reputation for liking free markets and low taxes, Cameron wanted to soften his image and suggest a broader, more caring perspective. Miliband is trying to replace a government that is presiding over a sudden uptick in GDP, so naturally he wishes to point the spotlight somewhere else.这两种情况下的犬儒动机是显而易见的——就像尼古拉#8226;萨科Nicolas Sarkozy)还是法国总统的时候那样,他委托出炉了一些另类的经济衡量指标,而这些指标恰好展现法国的长处。作为以崇尚自由市场和低税收出名的保守党的领导人,卡梅伦希望软化自己的形象,暗示一种更包容更关爱的视角。米利班德正试图取代一个成功推动英国GDP突然出现起色的政府,因此,他很自然地想把聚光灯投射到别的地方。The naivety requires more statistical digging to uncover, and it’s in three parts. The first point is that many of these data aly exist. The Office for National Statistics asks questions about wellbeing as part of the Labour Force Survey. The ONS also publishes regular data on inflation, while wage data are in the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Neither Cameron nor Miliband was really asking the statisticians at the ONS to do something new, just to do it more often or in more detail.揭露幼稚的一面需要挖掘更多统计数据,这需要分为三部分。第一点是,许多此类数据早已存在。英国国家统计局(ONS)在劳动力调查(Labour Force Survey)中问到有关福祉的问题。该局也定期发布通胀数据,而工资数据包含在工时和薪资年度调Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings)中。卡梅伦和米利班德并非真的要求国家统计局的统计学家拿出新花样,而只是希望统计的次数更频繁或者内容更加详细。The second point is that no mainstream politician has ever regarded GDP (or its cousin Gross National Product) as the only worthwhile policy objective, although we are often invited to draw that conclusion. Robert Kennedy’s famous complaint that GNP counts “napalmand “nuclear warheadsbut not “the health of our childrenor “the strength of our marriageswas wonderful rhetoric but surely nobody believes that if only the statisticians had collected different data, divorce would be prevented and the Vietnam war would never have happened.第二点是,从来没有主流政治人物将GDP(或者国民生产总GNP))作为唯一有价值的政策目标,尽管我们经常容易得出这一结论。罗伯特#8226;肯尼Robert Kennedy)曾经说,GNP计入了“凝固汽油弹”和“核弹头”,却没有包括“我们孩子的健康”或者“我们婚姻的力量”;他的这一著名抱怨虽言辞美妙,但谁能相信只要统计学家收集了不同的数据,离婚就可以被阻止,而越南战争就永远不会发生呢?An acerbic comment in Nature last year complained that, “Despite the destruction wrought by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012, both events boosted US GDP because they stimulated rebuilding.But this is only a problem if the Deepwater Horizon spill was in some way caused by the collection of GDP data.去年,《自然Nature)杂志上的一个尖刻抱怨道:“虽010年‘深水地平线Deepwater Horizon)石油泄漏012年飓风桑Hurricane Sandy)造成了巨大破坏,但这两个事件提振了美国GDP,因为它们刺激了重建工作。”但是,只有在“深水地平线”石油泄漏是GDP数据收集以某种方式所导致的情况下,这才是一个问题。If politicians truly sought to maximise GDP they would immediately abolish all planning restrictions, all barriers to immigration and a good chunk of the welfare state. These ideas are political suicide, which proves that GDP is not the sole objective of public policy it’s just a way to try to measure the size of the economy.如果政客们真的试图使GDP最大化,他们就会立即废除所有的市政规划限制、废除所有移民障碍以及福利国家制度的一大部分。这些构想等于政治自杀,这明了GDP不是公共政策的唯一目标,而只是一种衡量经济规模的方法。The deepest piece of naivety is the idea that in Ed Miliband’s words we can measure the one single “thing that matters most ONS data on median wages are a case in point. According to one measure, the median wage for people in full-time employment rose just 0.1 per cent in the past tax year well below the rate of inflation. According to another way of calculating exactly the same number, median wages rose by 4.1 per cent, well above the rate of inflation. (The median is the wage earned by someone slap in the middle of the sample.)最深层的幼稚是这样的想法:(用米利班德的话说)我们可以衡量一件“最重要的东西”。国家统计局关于中位数工资的数据是一个很好的例子。根据一项衡量指标,全职就业人士的中位数工资在上一个纳税年度仅上涨0.1%,远低于通胀率。而以完全相同数字为依据的另一种计算方法显示,中位数工资增长了4.1%,远高于通胀率中位数工资是指样本里处于中间位置者的收入)。How can that be? The lower measure is the median for the entire sample. The higher measure looks at the median wage of people who’ve been in the same job for the entire year the vast majority. The two numbers would differ if for example some high-income people retired and some low-income people joined the labour force (school-leavers? immigrants?). It’s possible for most people to enjoy a decent pay rise while median wages stagnate, and that may be what is happening now. One rather narrow question “how are things going for people in full-time employment in the middle of the income distribution?turns out to have two very different answers. Each one is perfectly justifiable.怎么会这样呢?较低的测量结果是整个样本的中位数。较高的测量结果针对全年都做同一份工作的人(绝大多数人)的中位数工资。例如,如果一些高收入者退休了,而一些低收入者加入了劳动力大军(中学毕业生?移民?),这两个数字就会有所不同。大多数人享受体面的加薪而中位数工资保持不变的情况是可能发生的,而这可能是现在正在发生的。换句话说,一个相当狭义的问题——“处于收入分配中间位置的全职工作者的境遇如何?”——结果有两个非常不同的,而每一个都有无懈可击的依据。We haven’t even got into questions of part-timers, the self-employed, the poorest, the richest, pensioners or benefit recipients. The idea that we can somehow measure “the thing that matters mostis quite absurd.我们甚至还没有涉及关于兼职者、自由职业者、最贫困人口、最富有的人、养老金领取者或福利领取者的问题。那种认为我们能够以某种方式衡量“最重要的东西”的想法是很荒谬的。It’s the duty of our official statisticians to provide a range of timely and objective statistics that will lead to better decisions. That is why so many different types of data must be gathered, analysed and published. It is a hard job, which is why the ONS has better things to do than help our schoolboy politicians score points off each other.官方统计学家有责任提供一系列及时客观的统计数据,帮助制定出更好的决策。这就是为什么必须收集、分析并发布如此多不同类型的数据。这是一项艰苦的工作,也是为什么比起帮助幼稚的政客彼此压倒对方,英国国家统计局还有更重要的事情要做。Tim Harford’s latest book, ‘The Undercover Economist Strikes Back is now available in paperback. Twitter: @TimHarford本文作者蒂#8226;哈福Tim Harford)的新书《卧底经济学家反击战The Undercover Economist Strikes Back)的平装本现已上市。Twitter:@TimHarford /201503/362665

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